Impact of COVID-19 on Portugal Economy, Deviation, Segmentation, Forecast 2019-2025

Portugal, the southern European country on the Iberian Peninsula, reported its first case related to COVID-19 on March 3rd, 2020, and within a month the cases reached near to 10,000. As per the International Monetary Fund, the GDP of the country was $236.4 billion in 2019 with a growth of 2.9% as compared to last year. Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, a slowdown in all major economies has been witnessed due to which the exports and tourism sector of the country will be affected in the near future. In the wake of this, the government of the country has announced a package of around $10.0 billion in order to support workers and to provide liquidity to the companies. The package is equivalent to 4.3% of the country's GDP. The country reported a surplus budget of 0.2% of GDP in 2019 due to the strong economic growth however due to the pandemic the budget will report a fiscal deficit in 2020.

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The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on Portugal's economy is studied by classifying the economy into energy, healthcare, retail & e-commerce, aviation, manufacturing, travel & tourism, and other verticals. Most affected sectors in the country include aviation, tourism, and other temporary works. Portugal is highly dependent on the tourist for its income. Around 16.3 million, tourists visited the country in 2019 as compared to 10 million in 2014. As per the government data, in 2018 the share of the tourism sector was around 14.6% of the GDP, much higher than the global average.

As per the Portuguese Hotels Association (AHP), by the 10th of March, when the CVID-19 was at the initial stage in the country, the cancelation rate for 411 hotels was around 60%. On 12 March 2020, the government announced the highest level of alert till 9th April and on 18 March 2020 state emergency was declared in the country for 15 days. Moreover, on 2nd April 2020, the state emergency extended to 17th April 2020.

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Verticals Affected Most
• Automotive
• Energy
• Healthcare
• Retail & E-commerce
• Aviation
• Manufacturing
• Travel and Tourism
• Others (Construction, Electronics)

Company Profiles
• Continente Hipermercados, SA
• EDP - Energias de Portugal, S.A.
• Groupe PSA
• Groupe Renault
• Jeronimo Martins, SGPS, S.A
• Altice Europe NV
• SANA Hotels Portugal, S.A.
• TAP Air Portugal
• VIP Hotels
• Volkswagen AG

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