European Football Championship 2008: Numbers vs Neurons

Pythagoras versus triangles, teenage students versus algebra, Fibonacci versus a long list of numbers – the battle between man and maths has been raging for centuries. Now, in the latest skirmish, an expert football pundit goes head-to-head with the Castrol Performance Index.

The Castrol Performance Index (CPI) gives a detailed list of every UEFA EURO 2008TM qualified player's performance, his importance to his team and his effectiveness on the pitch. Its analysis of games is consistent, unbiased and by the numbers.

The acid test, though, is how does the CPI compare to decades of human football knowledge? Think David Ginola to the CPI's Fabio Cannavaro. We got Paul Simpson, editor of Champions League magazine (and a Babbage Analytical Engine in his own right) to pick his personal top six indispensables from the Euro 2008 finalists.

We then matched those names up to the CPI to see if his selection – based on instinct, experience and gut reaction – stacks up against the hard facts. Can analogue thinking stand up in a digital world?

Expert pick 1: Euzebiusz Smolarek (Poland)
"It’s important to do your talking with your feet and not your mouth,” says the Real Racing Club de Santander star. The 27-year-old – named after Eusebio – did just that in Poland’s qualifying campaign, bouncing back after a scoreless 2006 World Cup and a UEFA ban for failing a drugs test. His nine goals helped Poland beat Belgium, Kazakhstan and Portugal (he was the first Pole to score against Portugal in 20 years; his father Wlodzimeirz scored the previous one). That success ultimately started the vital fightback in Azerbaijan.
CPI says: Ebi is indeed Poland's top-ranking player in the CPI, coming in as the 23rd best player overall and the sixth best midfielder.

Expert pick 2: Eduardo da Silva (Croatia)
Arsenal FC’s Brazilian-born striker earned Croatia 15 points with his goals. He scored a hat-trick against Israel away, an 87th-minute winner against Macedonia and was on the scoresheet in both games against Estonia and Israel. Tricky, nifty and technically accomplished, the 24-year-old is perfectly suited to Croatia’s fluent, fast, counterattacking game and achieved a remarkable strike rate: 10 goals in 12 qualifying games.
CPI says: Top of the tree. Based on performances during qualifying, Eduardo is the best player to have made the finals in June.

Expert pick 3: Andrei Arshavin (Russia)
The 26-year-old Russian ‘Footballer of the year’ is so versatile that coaches didn’t know where to play him in his younger days. He can lead the attack, play second striker or prompt from right midfield. The skipper of Russian champions FC Zenit St Petersburg played all but six minutes of Euro 2008 qualifying (he was red-carded in the 84th minute against Andorra, and so misses Russia’s first two games), scoring three goals and making four.
CPI says: A solid pick, but, from the Russian squad, Diniyar Bilyaletdinov, Igor Akinfeev, Vassili Berezoutski and Sergei Ignashevitch all ranked higher than the 26-year-old forward.

Expert pick 4: Petr Cech (Czech Republic)
Alongside Gianluigi Buffon, Cech is probably the best keeper in the world. His habit of setting goalkeeping records is no accident and he kept seven clean sheets in 10 qualifying games. Although he has made a couple of uncharacteristic errors for Chelsea FC recently, he has hitherto looked almost infallible as a keeper, with a sure sense of positioning, superb reflexes, and the kind of courage that enabled him to come back after having his skull fractured. And he’s still only 25.
CPI says: Another very strong selection, Cech is the third best player in the CPI and the highest ranked from the Czech Republic. He is not the best keeper, though. That accolade goes to Croatia's Stipe Pletikosa.

Expert pick 5: Luca Toni (Italy)
With five goals in six qualifiers, Toni may be the most improved striker in Europe. FC Bayern München’s lanky 30-year-old has taken time – and 10 clubs – to make his mark, but made a significant contribution as the Azzurri won the 2006 World Cup. He has since hit a rich vein of form. Injuries restricted his qualifying campaign, but he scored vital goals against Scotland and flicked on for Sebastian Grosso to seal the points against Georgia. Good in the air, a great opportunist and a durable lone striker, Toni will be Roberto Donadoni’s first choice upfront in Euro 2008.
CPI says: Italy's top ranked player, Toni sits just one spot behind Cech. As the second-highest ranked striker he lines up alongside Eduardo in the CPI Best 11.

Expert pick 6: Sergio Ramos (Spain)
One of the world’s most promising young defenders, Real Madrid CF star Ramos only missed one qualifying match, scored two goals and averaged more shots per game (1.6) than fouls (1.1). Defensively sound, precociously confident (he’s 22 in March), with exquisite positional sense and the ability to mount incisive attacks down the right, he is unlikely to miss a game during the Euro 2008 finals.
CPI says: Spain's highest-ranked defender and the ninth-best stopper in the finals, the only Spaniards to better Ramos' ranking are superstars Xavi and David Villa.

A score draw then, with man and maths coming to broadly the same conclusions. The difference? Unless you happen to edit the Gazzetta dello sport, accessing the brain of top football writers is unlikely to be as easy as logging on to the CPI…

For more news on the European Football Championship 2008 please visit http://www.castrolindex.com

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