China Electric Bus Market by Type Pure Electric Bus, Series Hybrid Bus, Parallel Hybrid Bus, Series Parallel Hybrid Bus - Market Size, Share, Development, Growth, and Demand Forecast, 2013-2025

China electric bus market size is estimated to cross 140,000 units in 2017 and is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 13.1% during 2018-2025. The market witnessed a significant growth in the historical period, mainly driven by government subsidies. Pure Electric buses, which account for a majority of electric bus sales in the country, would continue to dominate the Chinese electric bus market due to increased government support for these buses.

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The Chinese electric bus market is segmented on the basis of type, which includes parallel hybrid bus, pure electric bus, series parallel hybrid bus, and series hybrid bus. Pure electric bus is estimated to hold close to 86% share in the Chinese market in 2017. Pure electric bus is further expected to continue to account for a significant share in sales during the forecast period driven by increasing government support. On the basis of length, electric bus is segmented into three categories, namely, 10m. 8m – 10m, and >10m length buses together accounted for close to two-third of the total electric bus sales in the country in 2017.

As battery accounts for significant share of electric bus manufacturing cost, declining Li-ion battery prices would help bus companies to keep the prices under check. Moreover, increasing battery production capacity would further lower battery prices in China during the forecast period. As in the case of internal combustion engine, whose costs have reduced with decades of experience, the electric vehicle’s cost too would continue to fall during the forecast period with industry experience, operational efficiencies, and economies of scale, thus benefiting the Chinese electric bus market during the forecast period.

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China has a few million buses/coaches accumulated in the last decade, out of which, around one-third of the buses are more than five years old. These old conventional buses are expected to be replaced by new electric ones during the forecast period. Large fleet of old conventional buses in the country provides considerable opportunity for electric bus sales in the country. Also, more buses would become old during the forecast period, thus further benefiting the Chinese electric bus market.

Reduction in subsidies have increased the upfront cost of electric buses as compared to conventional buses. Due to this, the demand for electric buses is likely to suffer in the next few years, especially from the private segment which is highly price-sensitive. Moreover, OEMs and bus manufacturers which enjoyed considerable profit margins in the historic period, would now need to cut profits to maintain reasonable retail price for electric buses.

Zhengzhou Yutong Group Co. Ltd. was the leading player in the Chinese electric bus market in 2016, accounting for more than one-fourth of the total sales, followed by Higer Bus Company Limited and Zhongtong Bus & Holding Co. Ltd., each accounting for more than 10% of the total sales. Other key players in the Chinese electric bus market include Dongfeng Motor Corporation, King Long United Automotive Industry Co. Ltd., Anhui Ankai Automobile Co. Ltd., Liaoning Huanghai Automobile Import & Export Co. Ltd., Yangzhou Yaxing Motor Coach Co. Ltd., and BYD Company Limited.

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