Australian mobile market profitability up while NBN slow walks its FTTP upgrade as the country awaits an upgrade to full-fibre broadband

NEWS PROVIDED BY
Idem Est Research & Advisory
6 March 2024, 16:00 AEST
Australia Telecom Industry Market Report forecasts 59m mobile and fixed broadband subscribers by 2031
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Sydney, Mar. 6, 2024 /Newswire/ -- Idem Est Research and Advisory, a boutique firm specialising in telecommunications and digital infrastructure market research and advisory has released a new research report titled, Australia Telecom Industry, 2024-2031.

The report states that the growth of Australia's telecommunications market is shifting towards mobile, after five years of significant growth in the fixed broadband market. Mobile subscriptions are expected to grow at an annual average rate of 2.3% between 2024 and 2031. Meanwhile, fixed broadband subscribers are projected to see an average growth rate of 1.4% over the same period, indicating a steady demand for high-speed internet services.
Total telecommunications revenue in Australia is forecasted to reach AUD45 billion by 2031, highlighting the sector's significant contribution to the economy.
"An increase in Capex spending is expected from 2024, aiming to enhance fixed-line services to 100Mbps speeds and above for 75% of the NBN's footprint, NBN will have to walk a fine between being cash flow positive and Capex spending provided its already high level of debt" says Landry Fevre, Idem Est Research & Advisory's Director.

NBN is now well engaged in its FTTP upgrade program with 3.5m premises eligible for FTTP upgrade out of 8.6m including HFC which is not yet slated for a full-fibre upgrade.

"At the current rate of FTTP upgrade adoption, Idem Est Research forecasts, it will take NBN about 20 years just to upgrade its existing FTTN and FTTC subscribers highlighting its on-demand fibre upgrade program requires an overhaul shift to a systematic upgrade of premises leveraging scale and reduced unit costs, as many FTTP programs have shown around the world.", says Landry Fevre, Idem Est Research & Advisory's Director.

Investments in the telecoms sector bottomed out in 2021 and telecommunications service providers are expected to maintain capital expenditure growth momentum in 2023-30, to an average rate of 1.8% by 2030.
Idem Est Research expects another wave of consolidation in Australia, post-NBN rollout, as margins get squeezed further.
"The report outlines examples of some newcomers branching out by reselling broadband access services as a churn reduction strategy and the increasing consumers' share of wallet," added Landry Fevre.

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS AUSTRALIA TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:
AGL, Amplitel, ATN, Aussie Broadband, Exetel, Foxtel, Indara, NBN, Optus, Superloop, Telstra, TPG, Uniti Group, Vodafone, Vocus

Download the full report: https://idemest.com/reports/australia-telecom-market-report-mobile-broadband-market-industry-analysis/

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS AUSTRALIA TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:

AGL, Amplitel, Aussie Broadband, Exetel, Foxtel, Indara, IPstar, Kacific, NBN, Opticomm, Optus, Starlink, Superloop, Telstra, TPG, Uniti, Vodafone, Vocus, Waveconn

Australia Telecom Industry Report - TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Key Statistics
1.1 Australia's Population
1.2 Australia's Economy
1.3 Australia's GDP

2 Overall Telecommunications Market, 2017-2031
2.1 Market Overview
2.2 Australia's Race to Lead in 5G and Beyond
2.3 Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2017-2023
2.4 Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2023-2031
2.5 Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2017-2031
2.5.1 Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2017-2031
2.5.2 Capex to Revenue Benchmark
2.5.3 Capex to GDP Benchmark
2.5.4 Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2023-2031

3 Telecommunications Operators Profile
3.1 Telstra Profile
3.1.1 Telstra Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.1.2 Telstra InfraCo
3.2 Optus Profile
3.2.1 Optus Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.3 TPG Telecom Group Profile
3.3.1 TPG Telecom Group and EBITDA Mix
3.3.2 Historical TPG Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.3.3 Vodafone Profile
3.3.4 Historical Vodafone Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.4 Vocus Profile
3.4.1 Vocus Revenue and EBITDA Mix
3.5 Aussie Broadband Profile
3.6 Superloop Profile
3.7 Uniti Profile
3.7.1 Uniti + Opticomm + Velocity

4 Australia Mobile market
4.1 Australia Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2017-2031
4.1.1 Australia Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2017-2023
4.1.2 Australia Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2017-2023
4.1.3 Australia Smartphone Share, 2023
4.1.4 Australia Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031
4.1.5 Australia Mobile Subscribers by Generation Forecast, 2023-2031
4.2 Australia Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2016-2031
4.2.1 Historical Australia Mobile Revenue, 2017-2023
4.2.2 Australia Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2017-2023
4.2.3 Australia Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2023-2031
4.3 Mobile Coverage
4.4 Spectrum Holdings
4.4.1 Spectrum Regulation
4.4.2 5G and Other Spectrum Auctions
4.4.3 Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
4.4.4 Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
4.5 Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
4.6 Mobile Speed Tests
4.6.1 Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
4.6.2 OpenSignal
4.7 Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO)
4.8 Internet of Things (IoT)

5 Broadband Market
5.1 Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2017-2023
5.2 Fixed Download Data Trends
5.3 Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031

6 Satellite Internet Connectivity
6.1 Comparing LEO, MEO, and GEO Satellite Orbits
6.1.1 LEO and GEO Satellite Comparison
6.2 Satellite Broadband Providers Operators, 2023
6.3 5G NTN: The Next Generation of Satellite Connectivity
6.3.1 5G NTN Overview
6.3.2 The Rationale Behind 5G NTN
6.3.3 Technical Aspects of 5G NTN
6.3.4 Potential Applications for 5G NTN
6.3.5 Challenges in Implementation
6.3.6 5G NTN Satellite Providers
6.4 Satellite Internet Market Analysis, 2023-2031
6.4.1 Market Landscape of Satellite Broadband Subscribers, 2023
6.5 Australia Satellite Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031

7 Fixed Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments
7.1 Fixed Digital Infrastructure
7.1.1 Overview of the National Broadband Network
7.1.2 NBN Scope
7.1.3 Legislative Framework for the NBN
7.1.4 Regulatory Framework
7.1.5 Wholesale Only & Uniform Pricing
7.1.6 NBN Industry Implications
7.1.7 NBN Implementation
7.1.8 NBN Financials - NBN Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2010-2023
7.1.9 NBN Market Share - 2023
7.1.10 NBN Build
7.1.11 NBN FTTP Upgrade Program - 20 Years to Go
7.1.12 NBN Speeds
7.1.1 NBN Speeds Mix Compared to New Zealand
7.1.2 $50bn Later and Australia is Still a Broadband Backwater
7.1.3 NBN Business Segment - Enterprise Product Threat and Opportunity
7.2 Fixed Broadband Networks Doing the Heavy Lifting
7.3 Submarine Cables

8 Australia Telecom Towers Infrastructure Landscape
8.1 Australia Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2023
8.1.1 Australia Telecom Towers Market Overview
8.1.2 Australia Telecom Towers Background
8.2 Australia Telecom Towers & Rooftops Market Forecast
8.2.1 Australia Telecom Towers Forecast, 2023-2031
8.2.2 Regulatory Considerations
8.3 Telstra InfraCo (Amplitel)
8.3.1 Telstra InfraCo Towers Key Performance Indicators
8.4 Indara Digital Infrastructure Profile
8.4.1 Indara Key Performance Indicators
8.5 Waveconn Profile
8.5.1 Waveconn Key Performance Indicators
8.6 BAI Communications Profile
8.6.1 BAI Communications Key Performance Indicators

9 Thematics / Opportunities

9.1 Consolidation Opportunities
9.2 Diversification Opportunities
9.3 New Telecoms Operating Model
9.3.1 The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
9.4 6G Developments

10 Telco Transactions Database

11 Methodology

12 Copyright Notice

Australia Telecom Industry Report - List of Figures

Figure 1 - Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Australia
Figure 2 -Revenue Profile Historical Mix (AUD m), 2017 - 2023
Figure 3 -EBITDA Profile Historical Mix (AUD m), 2017 - 2023
Figure 4 - Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2023
Figure 5 - Telecommunications Market EBITDA, 2023
Figure 6 - Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share, 2023
Figure 7 - Total Telecoms Market Revenue and Growth Rate (AUD bn), 2017-2031
Figure 8 - Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2017-2023
Figure 9 - Capex to GDP Ratio Benchmark, 2017-2023
Figure 10 - Telecommunications Capital & Operational Expenditure Spend, 2000-2031
Figure 11 - Telstra Revenue Mix - 2017-2023
Figure 12 -Telstra EBITDA Mix (AUD m) - 2017-2023
Figure 13 - Telstra Historical Revenue Mix, 2017 - 2023 (AUD m)
Figure 14 - Optus Revenue Mix - 2017-2023 (AUD m)
Figure 15 - Optus Historical Revenue Mix, 2017-2023 (AUD m)
Figure 16 - TPG Telecom Group Revenue Profile, 2019-2023
Figure 17 - TPG Telecom Group Revenue Mix - 2019-2022 (AUD m)
Figure 18 - TPG Revenue Profile, 2014-2019
Figure 19 - Vodafone Revenue Profile, 2014-2019
Figure 20 - Australia Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2017-2023
Figure 21 - Australia Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2017-2023
Figure 22 - Mobile Net Adds (000's) Comparison, 2017-2023
Figure 23 - Australia Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031
Figure 24 - Mobile Subscribers by Generation Forecast, 2023-2031
Figure 25 - Mobile Subscribers ARPU (A$), 2017-2031
Figure 26 - Australia Mobile Revenue Forecast, 2017-2031
Figure 27 - Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Select Asia-Pacific Countries, 2024
Figure 28 - Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2023
Figure 29 - Data Pricing Trends in Asia-Pacific (US$ per GB per month), 2017-2023
Figure 30 - Asia Pacific Data Pricing Benchmark, 2023
Figure 31 - MVNO Share of the Mobile Market, 2023
Figure 32 - MVNO Subscribers (k), 2017-2023
Figure 33 - Spectrum Available and IoT Landscape in Australia
Figure 34 - Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2017-2023
Figure 35 - Australia Net-Adds (000's) by Operators, 2017-2023
Figure 36 - Fixed Broadband Monthly Download Data, 2008-2023
Figure 37 - Australia Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031
Figure 38 - Satellite Deployments Type
Figure 39 -Starlink and OneWeb Satellite Launches per Month (Data until Jan-24)
Figure 40 -Australia Satellite Broadband Market Share, 2023
Figure 41 - Australia Satellite Broadband Subscribers (k) Forecast, 2023-2031
Figure 42 - NBN Architecture Overview
Figure 43 - NBN Corporate Plan Financials, 2010-2023
Figure 44 - NBN Subscribers Share -2023
Figure 45 - Broadband Migration to NBN Nearly Completed
Figure 46 - NBN homes Passed by Technology Forecast (k)
Figure 47 - NBN Corporate Plans (CP) Cash Flow Projections Comparison
Figure 48 - NBN Services by Speed
Figure 49 - UFB Services by Speed
Figure 50 - Ookla Speed Test Results (Mbps) - January 2024
Figure 51 - Volume of Data Downloaded (Terabytes/month), 2010-2023
Figure 52 - Wireless-Only Homes, 2014-2021
Figure 53 - Australia Telecom Towers Market Share, 2023
Figure 54 - Australia Telecom Towers & Rooftops Forecast, 2023-2031
Figure 55 - Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges

Australia Telecom Industry Report - List of Tables

Table 1 - Australia - Key Statistics
Table 2 - Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators, 2017-2023
Table 3 - Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2023-2031
Table 4 - Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2017-2023
Table 5 - Historical Telstra Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2017-2023
Table 6 - Telstra InfraCo Asset Portfolio, 2018-2020
Table 7 - Optus Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2017-2023
Table 8 - TPG Telecom Group Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2019-2023
Table 9 - TPG Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2019
Table 10 - Vodafone Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2019
Table 11 - Vocus Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2017-2023
Table 12 - Aussie Broadband Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2018-2023
Table 13 - Superloop Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2017-2023
Table 14 - Uniti & Opticom Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, 2018-2021
Table 15 - Australia Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2017-2023
Table 16 - Australia Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031
Table 17 - Australia Mobile Subscribers by Generation (3G, 4G, 5G & 6G) Forecast, 2023-2031
Table 18 - Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2017-2023
Table 19 - Historical Mobile ARPU, 2017-2023
Table 20 - Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2023-2031
Table 21 - Mobile Coverage & Reach - 2022
Table 22 - Historical of Spectrum Auctions and Costs
Table 23 - Spectrum Holdings by Operators and by Bands (MHz)
Table 24 - Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (MHz)
Table 25 - Examples of MVNOs and their Wholesale Providers
Table 26 - Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2017-2023
Table 27 - Historical Broadband EBITDA Margin, 2017-2023
Table 28 - Historical Broadband ARPU, 2017-2023
Table 29 - Australia Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031
Table 30 - Satellite Orbit Altitudes
Table 31 - LEO and GEO Satellite Comparison
Table 31 - Satellite Broadband Subscribers Operators, 2023
Table 32 - 5G NTN and Satellite Providers, 2023
Table 33 - Australia Satellite Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2023-2031
Table 34 - NBN Technology Mix
Table 35 - Telstra and Optus Estimated EBITDA Margin
Table 36 - Australia Business Broadband Segmentation, 2023
Table 37 - Volume of Data Downloaded Mix (Terabytes/month), 2010-2023
Table 38 - International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in Australia
Table 39 - Australia Telecom Towers Market Analysis, 2023
Table 40 - Australia Telecom Towers Indicative Tower Leasing Annual Fees
Table 41 - Australia Telecom Towers and Rooftops, Towers per Capita, Tower Revenue, Mobile Subscribers & Penetration and ARPU Forecast, 2023-2031
Table 42 -Telstra InfraCo Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2023
Table 43 -ATN Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2023
Table 44 - Waveconn Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2023
Table 45 - BAI Communications Towers Key Performance Indicators, 2023
Table 46 - Telco Transaction Database, 2015-2023

Idem Est Research
Woonona Road
Northbridge, NSW 2063
For media inquiries, please contact:
Landry Fevre
landry@idemest.com

About Idem Est Research Advisory
Idem Est Research and Advisory is a boutique telecommunications and digital infrastructure market research and advisory. Idem Est Research provides leading telecoms research helping our clients stay updated on the latest telecoms sector and digital infrastructure developments. The reports provide analyses of mobile and broadband markets, capital expenditure, forecasts, key telecom trends and thematic such as 5G and telecoms digital infrastructure, as well as other statistics of the telco industry.
Our independent approach allows us to place the trends and drivers fully into context and analyse the industry as a whole from different, unbiased perspectives. Alongside the facts and figures, Idem Est Research draws on three decades of experience to provide incisive commentary and analysis. This brings visibility to the business drivers, challenges, decision-making and future direction of the telecoms sector.
To learn more, visit www.idemest.com

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